As of Tuesday, February 03, 2026, active residential listings in the Austin area stand at 12,772. While that is well below the prior inventory peak of 18,146 reached in late June 2025, it still represents an 11.1% increase compared to this time last year. This matters because inventory has not collapsed. It has normalized at a higher level than 2024 while demand has not fully recovered. That combination keeps downward pressure on pricing and increases the importance of correct positioning for sellers.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for February 03, 2026.
One of the clearest signals of market stress continues to be pricing behavior. Today, 50.2% of all active listings have experienced at least one price drop. That means more than half the market has already acknowledged that original pricing did not align with buyer demand. This is not a seasonal blip. It is a structural signal that sellers are competing more aggressively for fewer qualified buyers, and that buyers are not stretching simply because a home is available.
Breaking active inventory down further reinforces this picture. Of the 12,772 active listings, 4,016 are new construction and 8,756 are resale homes. New construction remains a large and influential share of supply, and builders continue to set the competitive tone through incentives, price adjustments, and rate buydowns. Resale sellers are increasingly forced to react to those conditions, especially in price-sensitive submarkets.
New listing activity tells a more nuanced story. Cumulative new listings from January through today total 3,633, which is down 5.1% year over year. At the same time, that figure sits 19.4% above the long-term average. In other words, fewer sellers are listing compared to last year, but historically speaking, supply is still elevated. This explains why inventory has not tightened meaningfully despite a slowdown in new listings. The market entered 2026 with enough excess supply to absorb reduced seller activity without shifting leverage back to sellers.
Pending listings provide insight into actual buyer commitment. Active pending listings today total 3,604, up 1.5% year over year. That is a modest improvement, but not enough to offset inventory levels. Cumulative pending contracts from January to today total 2,936, which is down 6.0% year over year and only 0.6% above the historical average. Buyers are present, but selective. They are moving forward when value aligns, not because of urgency.
This dynamic is captured clearly in the Activity Index, which measures the percentage of active listings that go under contract. The overall Activity Index today sits at 22.0%, down from 23.6% last year. That 6.7% year over year decline signals slower turnover. New construction continues to outperform resale with an Activity Index of 26.39%, while resale sits at just 19.82%. That places much of the resale market firmly in softening or contraction territory, depending on location and price point.
When resale activity is broken into market phases, the imbalance becomes even clearer. Only a small share of resale markets fall into expansion or equilibrium ranges. A meaningful portion now sits in contraction or even crisis conditions, where buyer hesitation increases and price corrections accelerate. This is why blanket statements about the Austin housing forecast miss the mark. Market conditions vary significantly by segment, but the overall direction remains slower and more competitive.
The relationship between new listings and pending contracts further confirms this trend. The current monthly new listing to pending ratio is 0.68. On a year to date cumulative basis, there are 697 more new listings than pending contracts. Historically, the 25-year average ratio is 0.82. A ratio below that average signals that supply is growing faster than demand, which typically leads to longer market times and additional price adjustments.
Months of inventory ties these metrics together into a single measure of balance. Today, months of inventory stands at 4.54, up from 4.01 one year ago, a 13.3% increase. While this is not extreme by historical standards, it firmly places the market in buyer-advantaged territory. When focusing only on resale inventory, a large share of the market now sits in neutral, buyer advantage, or buyer control ranges. Excess supply is not evenly distributed, but it is widespread enough to shape overall pricing behavior.
Sales activity reflects this slower environment. A total of 1,540 homes have sold so far this year, which is down 18.1% year over year but still slightly above the long-term average. When adjusted for population, sales volume looks weaker. Cumulative sold properties per 100,000 residents sit at 58, nearly 20% lower than last year and 27.6% below average. Sales per 1,000 Realtors tell a similar story, down 12.3% year over year and 24.0% below average. There is no shortage of listings. There is a shortage of completed transactions.
Pricing trends remain one of the most important elements of today’s Austin real estate update. The average sold price in January came in at $546,085. That is down nearly $136,000 from the May 2022 peak, representing a 19.92% decline. Median sold price tells an even clearer story of affordability correction. The median sold price now sits at $407,950, down $142,000 or 25.83% from its May 2022 peak of $550,000.
When comparing today’s median price to levels from 36 months ago, prices are down 9.34%. This confirms that the market has given back a meaningful portion of pandemic-era appreciation, but has not reverted to pre-boom conditions. Instead, prices are settling into a slower growth trajectory consistent with long-term fundamentals.
That long-term perspective is critical when evaluating future expectations. Austin’s 25-year compound annual appreciation rate is 4.39%. Using that rate and assuming the market has already reached its correction low, it would take approximately 85 months, or until January 2033, for median prices to return to prior peak levels. This is not a forecast of guaranteed outcomes, but it provides context for realistic expectations. Rapid rebounds are unlikely without a major shift in supply, demand, or affordability conditions.
Price performance also varies significantly across the market. Over the past year, the bottom 25th percentile of homes has seen prices decline by 4.77%, while the top 25th percentile has experienced price growth of nearly 3%. This divergence highlights how location, condition, and pricing strategy now matter more than ever. Seven cities posted year over year median price gains, while twenty-three cities saw declines. Most of the Austin metro remains under pressure.
The Home Value Index reinforces this conclusion. Approximately 80% of cities are currently classified as overvalued relative to fundamentals, with only a small number fairly valued or undervalued. This does not mean prices will collapse, but it does mean upward momentum remains constrained.
Demand strength relative to supply is captured by the absorption rate, also known as the sold-to-active ratio. Today, that figure sits at 14.03%, well below the historical average of 31.54%. Markets with absorption above 30% tend to favor sellers. Austin today is nowhere near that threshold. Instead, it reflects a market where buyers control timing and terms.
The Market Flow Score offers a final confirmation. At 2.67, compared to a historical average of 6.58, overall market efficiency remains low. Inventory is moving, but slowly. Friction persists, and momentum has not returned.
For buyers, this Austin housing market offers opportunity. Selection remains high, price reductions are common, and negotiation leverage is real. For sellers, realism is essential. Pricing correctly from the start and understanding local competition is no longer optional. For investors and agents, the data reinforces the importance of patience, discipline, and strategy over speculation.
The Austin housing forecast remains one of gradual adjustment, not rapid recovery. The market is working through excess supply and affordability constraints, and progress will be measured in months and years, not weeks.
